Late Projects Caused By Poor Estimation and Other Red Herrings

12/08/2006

red_herring_imageI’ve been seeing a pattern lately with Agile projects.

It’s not a new pattern. It’s one we’ve all likely seen on more traditional development projects for years.

The story goes a little like this:

A customer needs a software solution to a problem. An Agile team swoops in and in a reasonably short amount of time, and in collaboration with customers and end users, writes a bunch of user stories. Developers then estimate the stories. Together we spread these stories out over time and build a release plan. The customer makes some tough tradeoffs and winnows the release plan down to a set of stories that we all believe can be completed by the release date. The customer cautions “We really need to hit this dateā€¦ we’ve got a lot of people depending on this software.” The story estimates have been “marked up” – a load factor applied based on historic team velocity. We’re comfortable we can deliver these stories by the release date.

Those of you with a few years experience in software development have some guess about what happens next.

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